How Likely Is a New Madrid Seismic Earthquake?

By Michael Ferguson

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is a region in the United States that is known for its high seismic activity. It covers a vast area including parts of Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The region has been hit by several major earthquakes in the past, and it continues to experience smaller quakes to this day.

Experts have been warning about the possibility of a major earthquake hitting the New Madrid Seismic Zone for years. The question on everyone’s mind is – how likely is it to happen?

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), there is a 7-10% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake occurring in the next 50 years. While this may seem like a relatively low probability at first glance, it’s important to remember that earthquakes are unpredictable and can strike at any time.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone has experienced several major earthquakes in the past. The most significant quakes occurred in 1811 and 1812 and were estimated to be around magnitude 7.5-8.0. These quakes were felt as far away as New York City and caused significant damage throughout the region.

Since then, there have been several smaller earthquakes in the area, with magnitudes ranging from 2.5 to 5.4. While these quakes may not have caused significant damage, they serve as a reminder of the seismic activity that continues to occur in the region.

So what would happen if a major earthquake were to hit the New Madrid Seismic Zone again? Experts predict that it could cause significant damage throughout the region, including collapsed buildings and bridges, landslides, and even liquefaction of soil.

It’s important for residents living in or near the New Madrid Seismic Zone to be prepared for an earthquake. This includes having an emergency kit ready with essential supplies such as food, water, medications, and first aid supplies. It’s also essential to have a plan in place for how to communicate with loved ones and where to seek shelter in the event of an earthquake.

In conclusion, while the likelihood of a major earthquake hitting the New Madrid Seismic Zone may seem low, it’s important to remember that earthquakes are unpredictable and can strike at any time. It’s crucial for residents in the region to be prepared and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety in the event of an earthquake.