What Were the Odds of Liverpool Beating Barcelona?

By Alice Nichols

On May 7th, 2019, Liverpool staged one of the greatest comebacks in Champions League history. They overturned a 3-0 deficit against Barcelona to win the second leg 4-0 at Anfield and progress to the final. But what were the odds of Liverpool beating Barcelona?

Pre-match Odds

Before the match, most bookmakers had Barcelona as overwhelming favorites to progress to the final. They had won the first leg at Camp Nou 3-0 and had an away goal advantage. Liverpool, on the other hand, were without their star forwards Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino due to injury.

According to some bookmakers, Barcelona’s odds of qualifying for the final were as high as 1/100 (implying a probability of 99%) before kick-off. In contrast, Liverpool’s odds of progressing were as low as 20/1 (implying a probability of just 5%).

The Match

Liverpool started brightly and took an early lead through Divock Origi’s goal in the seventh minute. However, they still needed three more goals to overturn Barcelona’s lead.

The second goal came in the 56th minute when Georginio Wijnaldum scored twice in quick succession to level the tie on aggregate. Suddenly, Anfield was rocking with belief and anticipation.

In the 79th minute, Trent Alexander-Arnold took a quick corner which caught Barcelona off guard and allowed Origi to score his second goal of the night and complete Liverpool’s remarkable comeback.

  • Barcelona had an aggregate lead of three goals before kick-off
  • Liverpool needed four goals without conceding to progress
  • Barcelona had Lionel Messi (the world’s best player) in their team
  • Liverpool were without two of their best players in Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino

Post-match Odds

After the match, the odds of Liverpool winning the Champions League outright were slashed dramatically. They had been 4/1 before the second leg against Barcelona but were now as short as 2/1.

Liverpool went on to beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 in the final to win their sixth European Cup/Champions League trophy. It was a fitting end to an incredible season for Jurgen Klopp’s side.

Conclusion

To conclude, the odds of Liverpool beating Barcelona were extremely low before the match. Very few people would have predicted a 4-0 victory for Liverpool, let alone a comeback from 3-0 down on aggregate.

But that’s what makes football so unpredictable and exciting – anything can happen on any given day. And as Liverpool fans will attest, sometimes the unlikeliest of victories are the sweetest.